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Tracking Tariff Revenues
Book Review: The Discretion Dilemma
Banking oversight in the United States developed through a process of institutionalized discretion and layering. Rather than rigid rules or improvised interventions, each crisis, reform, and political compromise added new layers of authority and responsibility. The result? A system in which public…
Lubos Pastor – The Carbon Problem
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Navigating the AI Bubble with Fabio Natalucci
Tariff Impacts and Mitigation Strategies
Under the new Administration, the U.S. in early 2025 implemented the largest tariff increase since the Great Depression. Consistent with these newly imposed tariffs being a significant economic shock, as shown below, the share of companies where corporate executives discussed…
Managing Financial Crises
In this paper, we revisit the question of how to manage financial crises using the framework proposed by Bianchi and Mendoza (2018). We show that this model economy exhibits a multiplicity of constrained-efficient equilibria, which arises because the private shadow…
The Stock Market is Overshooting AI’s Negative Impact on Jobs
The artificial intelligence industry’s leaders talk about a utopian future where machines take up so many human tasks that white-collar workers are replaced by the millions, a theme partly responsible for an exit from staffing and office-property shares this year.…
Iron Ore & Green Electrons with Guy Debelle
Foreign-borne Interest Rate Risk
This paper shows that interest rates on deposits issued in the foreign offices of US banks (“foreign deposits”) are more sensitive to US monetary policy than rates on domestically issued deposits. Estimated deposit betas are roughly 20 percentage points larger…
AI, Inflation, & The Fed with Jim Bullard
